Top Four and Final Five Blanket Primaries

Open and Semi Open Primaries

The Alaskan Model

Neutral Open Primaries

Most districts are safe districts for one of the major parties. In these districts, primary elections are far more important than general elections. A small set of partisan voters, often less than 10% of all voters, decide the elections.

In contested districts, two small sets of partisan voters nominate the major party candidates, the only candidates that have a fair chance of winning. Partisanship is fine, but primary voters do not represent all voters.

For safe seats, partisans will nominate ardent partisans. For contested seats, they will choose donor class friendly partisans who can raise the money needed to beat the other side.

In both cases, officeholders are afraid of being primaried, and they govern that way, rhetorically strident and fearful of compromise.

Open and Semi-Open Primaries

Our primaries are unfair! Major parties receive a ton of publicity in the primaries. In most states, major party candidates automatically qualify for the general election ballot. Minor party and unaffiliated candidates are required to jump through hoops to get on the general election ballot.

Primary elections give voters a voice in candidate nominations; this is important because we have a two-party duopoly of power. Many states try to enhance voter influence with open or semi-open primaries, but the voters who show up are partisan. In the last four midterms (2010, 2014, 2018 & 2022), turnout in states with open primaries averaged 21.9%, semi-open states had 18.8%, and closed primary states averaged 18.5%.[^1] Open and semi-open primaries allow more voters to take part in the primaries; however, they are not a major improvement. A better solution would break up the duopoly.

Can We Improve the Primaries?

Voters will judge parties by the candidates they nominate; therefore, parties should decide how to choose their candidates, unless two dominant parties have established a duopoly of power, which they have.

We could eliminate primaries. Parties would nominate candidates on their own. Major parties would no longer enjoy their publicity advantage. Also, it would be one less election for voters to worry about and require fewer campaign contributions. The downside, voters would have less influence on party nominations.

The opposite option: allow minor parties to have primary elections alongside the major parties. This could help minor parties generate much-needed publicity.

If we replace traditional plurality voting with a voting method that is fair to all candidates and parties, like BTR-Score voting we could let each party choose between open, semi-open, or closed primaries, or to nominate candidates on their own. BTR-Score voting gives parties an incentive to nominate candidates who can garner broad support while advancing the party’s values and policies.

the Alaskan Model

The term “primary election” may describe an election that chooses a nominee of a political party. It can also describe an election that narrows down a field of candidates for a general election.

Top Four Primaries and Final Five Primaries both follow the Alaskan model of two round elections. Major party primaries are eliminated. Political parties select nominees by their own means.

The first round is a single primary race open to all voters and candidates. This is known as a blanket (or jungle) primary. Voters choose four or five candidates to advance to the second round, the general election.

In theory, dedicated voters of all stripes will narrow down the field. To appeal to a wide assortment of voters, candidates may need to reduce their flame-throwing. They might even resort to talking about the issues.

Advantage Wealthy Independents

In most states, major parties must meet and maintain a set of legal qualifications. One benefit is that they can (or must) choose their nominee in a state-run primary election. Minor parties meet and maintain a lower set of qualifications; they cannot choose their nominees in a state-run primary election.

Under the Alaskan Model, all candidates, including party nominees, must collect signatures to get on the first-round blanket primary ballot. Parties still need to jump through hoops to maintain their legal status as political parties.

Independent (legally “unaffiliated”) candidates only need to collect the signatures. They avoid the hoops of legal party status and the bother of running a political party. They are not responsible to party members.

All this petition activity will make volunteer signature collection difficult and drive up the cost of signatures from paid petition circulators. Major parties and well-heeled independents will get their signatures. Third parties and less affluent independents will struggle.

For fairness and practicality, we should place all party nominees on the first-round primary ballot without requiring signatures. Independent candidates should be able to qualify for the primary ballot by meeting modest petition signature requirements.

Alaskan Model: Nonpartisan or Confused-Partisan?

In a partisan election, the ballot displays a party’s nomination next to its candidate. A nonpartisan ballot does not display party nominations.

In both rounds of Alaskan model elections, the ballots do not display party nominations. Instead, ballots display party affiliations taken from each candidate’s voter registration record.

This is how eight Republicans, three Democrats, three nonpartisans, two undeclared and one Alaskan Independent appeared on the primary ballot of the 2022 Alaskan US Senate race. The ballots did not tell voters which candidates were party nominees. Alaskan model elections are more confused-partisan than nonpartisan.

Multiple candidates listed on the ballot as Republicans, Democrats, and minor parties will confuse voters. More confusing is the lack of recognition for party nominees. This will take votes away from the party’s nominees. To be listed on a ballot as a Republican, you should be nominated by the Republican Party. In Alaska, all you need to do is register as a Republican voter. The confusion works to the advantage of wealthy or well-funded independents.

Instant Runoff Voting (IRV)

Alaskan Model proponents have chosen Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), also known as Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), for the Top Four and Final Five general elections. This is an odd choice, as IRV does not eliminate spoilers.

Proponents of IRV claim problems are rare, but IRV becomes less reliable with three or more competitive candidates, especially if a pair of those candidates are from the same party or share similar views. With the progress of election reform, competitive 3-way and 4-way races will become common. We need more reliable voting methods. These problems were predicted by Arrows Theorem.[^2]

In the very first Alaskan Top Four election, Sarah Palin, through no fault of her own, spoiled the chances of fellow Republican Nick Begish, allowing Democrat Mary Peltola to win.[^3]

Independent Al Goss finish third in the primary, a week later he withdrew from the campaign and endorsed Peltola. That left a 3-way RCV race. Proposals for Alaskan model elections now include a provision to replace a candidate who withdraws or is incapacitated, with the next highest finisher in the primary.

The first round of the IRV vote eliminated Nick Begich. His supporters gave 27,053 2nd choice votes to Palin and 15,467 2nd choice votes to Peltola, enough to move Peltola over 50% to win the election.

IRV 1ST Choice Votes
Dem. Peltola 40.2% 75,799
Rep. Palin 31.3% 58,973
Rep. Begich 28.5% 53,810

2nd Choice Votes Total Votes
Peltola 15,467 91,266 51.5%
Palin 27,053 86,026 48.5%

Ballots showed that Begich would have won 1 on 1 races against both Peltola and Palin. Peltola would have beaten Palin one on one. If 2,582 or more Palin supporters had ranked Begich 1st, Palin would have been eliminated before Begish and the 2nd choice votes of her supporters would have carried Begich to victory. This gave the Republican Party a case of Strategic Regret.

This was a major upset, in a May 2022 poll, Peltola trailed Santa Claus, but she came back to win. Santa finished a disappointing sixth in the 1st round blanket primary. However, he was ahead of 42 other candidates. Santa Claus endorsed Peltola in the 2nd round general election. BTW, Santa Claus is a resident of North Pole, Alaska. He looks just as you would expect him to look.

The Purpose of Top Four and Top Five Elections

Unite America is the leading proponent of “Top Four Primaries”. From their website: “Unite America is a philanthropic venture fund that invests in nonpartisan election reform to foster a more representative and functional government.”[^4]

Unite America was founded in 2014 as the Centrist Project. According to founding board member and current Executive Director, Nick Troiano “It sought to elect a handful of independent Senate candidates who could form a “fulcrum” to control the balance of power and leverage their influence to advance bipartisan solutions.”[^5]

This explains the advantages for independent candidates. It is also a brilliant political strategy. A small coalition of wealthy, unaffiliated candidates (Donor Class Light) gain great power without the bother of forming a political party. Be very careful about which independent candidates you vote for. Wealthy candidates are usually loyal to their economic class.

Unite America founder Charles Wheelan laid out the plan and policies in his 2014 book “The Centrist Manifesto”. The plan included a formal Centrist Party, but that seems to be on hold.

Centrist policy includes a common-sense approach to protecting the environment and support for gay rights. He is skeptical of unions, particularly teachers’ unions. In my opinion, he exaggerates the importance of the wealthy. Perhaps he should read The 2nd Law of Economics - Capitalism for the People.

You may find a lot to like and dislike in his book. The question is: should he and his friends hold the balance of power in America? Power is their goal. eBook at Kobo.

Even with its flaws and questionable motive, the Alaskan model may be an improvement over the status quo. Our current system favors the major parties. Top Four and Final Five primaries favor wealthy and well-financed unaffiliated candidates. Third parties and under-funded candidates continue to suffer.

Neutral Open Primaries

We propose a new method for primary elections; Neutral Open Primaries (NOP). NOP makes four changes to the Alaskan Model primaries:

Treat major and minor parties equally. Place all party nominees on the blanket primary ballot without signature requirements
Modest signature requirements for independent candidates
Party nominees are shown as such on the ballot; other party affiliations are not shown
Replace Instant Runoff Voting with a better voting method. BTR-Score is more reliable than IRV

2024 Colorado Proposition 131

A ballot initiative for Top Four blanket primaries with an IRV general election qualified for the 2024 ballot in Colorado, but is lost 54% to 46%. Similar proposals lost in Idaho and Nevada. In Alaska, Top Four primaries barely survived a repeal election, 49.88% to 50.12%.

The primary financial backers were Unite America Co chairs Kathryn Murdoch and Kent Thiry. The designated representatives were Jason Bertolacci and Owen Alexander Clough of Brownstein, Hyatt, Farber, & Schreck LLP. Kent Thiry, a wealthy independent, was suspected of backing the measure to give himself a better chance to win a US Senate seat or the governorship. In previous years, he backed successful Colorado ballot initiatives establishing semi-open primaries and a redistricting commission that is a model for other states.

The lead advocacy organization was Colorado Voters First. Their website had minimal information. RCV or IRV was barely mentioned. The ballot initiative language called it Instant Runoff Voting. Many other voting systems have rankings, and some have instant runoffs. Australians, the people who use it most, call it Preferential Voting.

[^1] 2022 Primary Turnout: Trends and Lessons for Boosting Participation, page 17, Bipartisan Policy Center, Joshua Ferrer, Michael Thorning

[^2] Investopedia Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem illustrates the flaws of ranked voting systems.

[^3] Ballotpedia 2022 United States House of Representatives special election in Alaska

[^4] UniteAmerica.org/our-team/

[^5] Nick Troiano - The Primary Solution, Rescuing Our Democracy from the Fringes - Simon & Schuster